Coin Metrics noted that the crypto industry is witnessing a pivotal moment as centralized exchanges like Kraken, Gemini, and Bullish gear up for initial public offerings (IPOs) in a shifting regulatory and market landscape. A more favorable environment, coupled with growing investor appetite for public market exposure, has set the stage for these companies to follow in the footsteps of Coinbase’s landmark 2021 IPO.
Coin Metrics also mentioned in their report that for years, the crypto industry faced regulatory headwinds in the U.S., with past administrations showing indifference or hostility.
However, recent developments signal a constructive shift.
The Presidents Working Group for Digital Assets released a comprehensive 166-page report outlining policy recommendations for a structured digital assets market.
Concurrently, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins unveiled “Project Crypto,” an initiative to position the U.S. as the “crypto capital of the world” by streamlining licensing, fostering on-chain financial markets, and enabling crypto “super-apps” that integrate diverse services.
This regulatory pivot has emboldened exchanges like Kraken, Gemini, and Bullish to pursue IPOs, capitalizing on renewed investor enthusiasm and a friendlier policy environment.
Coinbase’s April 2021 IPO remains the gold standard for crypto exchanges.
Debuting via a direct listing on Nasdaq with a reference price of $250 per share and a $65 billion valuation, Coinbase opened at $381 per share during the 2021 bull market peak.
At the time, 96% of its $3.4 billion in revenue came from transaction fees, as detailed in its S-1 filing.
Fast forward to Q2 2025, Coinbase has evolved into an “everything exchange.”
While trading remains central, its revenue mix has diversified significantly, with Subscription and Services Revenue—spanning stablecoin interest (USDC), staking, and custody—now accounting for 44% of its $1.5 billion Q2 2025 revenue, up from just 4% in Q1 2021.
This diversification has weakened the correlation between Coinbase’s stock price and trading volumes, reflecting a more resilient business model.
Kraken, Gemini, and Bullish are positioning themselves as full-stack digital asset providers as they approach their IPOs.
Kraken, with a reported $1.5 billion in 2024 revenue (up 128% from 2023), is targeting a $15 billion valuation, implying a 10x revenue multiple, slightly below Coinbase’s 12.7x.
Kraken’s strategic expansions, including acquiring NinjaTrader, securing MiCA licensing in Europe, and venturing into tokenized equities and payments via its Ink platform, underscore its ambition to diversify beyond trading.
Gemini, by contrast, operates at a smaller scale, with $164 million in average trading volume over the past year, the lowest among the trio.
Valued at $8 billion in private markets (up from $7.1 billion in 2021), Gemini offers staking, credit card products, and its Gemini Dollar (GUSD) stablecoin, though GUSD’s circulating supply has dwindled to 54 million.
Bullish, with $1.95 billion in average trading volume, is a strong contender, particularly for institutional clients.
Regulated in Germany, Hong Kong, and Gibraltar, Bullish is pursuing a U.S. license and has expanded into information services via its CoinDesk acquisition.
Despite a $80 million net income in 2024, its $4.2 billion valuation target is lower than its 2022 SPAC estimate of $9 billion.
Trading volume is a critical metric for estimating exchange valuations, but not all reported volumes are reliable.
Coinbase leads with 49% of spot volume among trusted centralized exchanges, followed by Bullish and Kraken at 22% each.
However, Coin Metrics’ Trusted Exchange Framework reveals discrepancies in reported volumes due to wash-trading.
By analyzing round-trip trades—trades with nearly identical amounts and prices within seconds—Coin Metrics identified inflated activity on some platforms.
For instance, Crypto.com’s $720 billion Q1-Q2 2025 volume included an estimated $160 billion from round-trip trades, raising concerns about reliability.
Such practices underscore the need for transparency and regulatory compliance when evaluating exchanges.
As Kraken, Gemini, and Bullish prepare for their IPOs, investors must weigh quantitative metrics like trading volume and revenue diversification alongside qualitative factors like regulatory compliance and business model resilience.
Coinbase’s focus on diversifying into custody, stablecoin revenue, and Layer-2 fees offers a roadmap for competitors.
However, intensifying competition and cyclical market dynamics demand that exchanges evolve beyond trading venues into comprehensive super-apps.
As the U.S. regulatory landscape becomes more defined, the ability of these exchanges to capitalize on this opportunity will determine their success in the public markets.
Investors should remain vigilant, using tools like Coin Metrics’ Trusted Exchange Framework to assess exchange quality and ensure fair valuations in this sector.