Will prediction markets once again prove to be prescient for political predictions? Let’s hope not.
Today, with polls open, the New York City Mayoral election is in full swing with upstart Marxist Zohran Mamdani, battling traditional Democrat Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Silwa to become the leader of the most dynamic city in the world.
If you can make it in New York…
For quite some time, polls have indicated a Mamdani win. Although some polls have shown the race tightening, everything suggests a Mamdani victory.
Regarding prediction markets, they seem to be singing the same tune.
Kalshi currently has Mamdani easily winning with a 93% expectation of him topping Cuomo and Silwa. Betting volume is topping $93 million.
Over on Polymarket, things look even better for Mamdani, with 95% of the market predicting a victory. Cuomo is lagging at just 5% chance of pulling it out.
Betting volume is over $400 million.
A possible win by Mamdami has caused ruptures within the Democrat Party, with some leaders endorsing and others remaining silent. The election could hold consequences for forthcoming elections, with midterms right around the corner, and some Democrats are questioning the state of their party, as its progressive or socialist wing has taken over. The win could also be damaging to the financial services sector too, which is concentrated in New York, as Mamdani wants to raise taxes even higher on the affluent. Many wealthy New Yorkers have already fled the city in anticipation of the outcome.
Polls close in New York City at 9 PM ET tonight.
