In case you missed it, a study about artificial intelligence (AI) and job losses has been circulating— especially as the US economy starts to wilt a bit more. While some observers claim that much or some of the decline in jobs is being driven by AI-fueled efficiencies, Yale begs to differ.
The research called “Evaluating the Impact of AI on the Labor Market: Current State of Affairs” from the Yale Budget Lab says that currently, there are zero widespread job losses due to AI.
Job losses taking place today are being driven by macroeconomic variables more than anything else.
While AI is not driving unemployment today, this does not mean it will not happen in the future. At the same time, some believe that AI-created redundancies may simply free up human capital to apply resources elsewhere. At least that is the conventional wisdom, plus or minus a few bumps along the way.
Yale admits that better data is needed to understand the impact of AI, and the Lab says it will update this analysis as things change over time.
To summarize, the Yale study states:
“Overall, our metrics indicate that the broader labor market has not experienced a discernible disruption since ChatGPT’s release 33 months ago, undercutting fears that AI automation is currently eroding the demand for cognitive labor across the economy … While this finding may contradict the most alarming headlines, it is not surprising given past precedents. Historically, widespread technological disruption in workplaces tends to occur over decades, rather than months or years. Computers didn’t become commonplace in offices until nearly a decade after their release to the public, and it took even longer for them to transform office workflows.”