Bitcoin poised to outperform NASDAQ, gold when risk appetite rebuilds?
“Bitcoin has already been hit with a far more aggressive reset than equities or gold. This matters, because when risk appetite improves, the assets that have corrected the most tend to respond first and fastest. Bitcoin has increasingly behaved as a leading indicator for broader risk assets, particularly US technology stocks.
“In recent months, moves in the NASDAQ have been reflected in Bitcoin’s price action, but with significantly greater amplitude on both the upside and the downside. Bitcoin has mirrored the NASDAQ, only in exaggerated form. A 4% pullback in tech translated into a near 30% adjustment in Bitcoin. The relationship tells you where sensitivity to risk really sits.
“Corrections driven by deleveraging are uncomfortable but constructive. They clear the market, reduce fragility, and reset positioning in a way that allows genuine demand to reassert itself.
“When macro pressure eases even slightly, Bitcoin tends to react aggressively. It doesn’t need a perfect environment. It needs a shift from fear toward selective risk-taking.
“Gold performs its role during uncertainty, but in a recovery phase, capital looks for upside, not shelter. Bitcoin sits much closer to growth assets in that context, yet it carries a scarcity narrative that neither tech stocks nor gold can fully replicate.
“This market is being recalibrated by volatility, not abandonment. The underlying architecture of demand is still there. Bitcoin has already done more of the heavy lifting on the downside than the NASDAQ or gold. When risk assets stage a recovery rally after this correction, Bitcoin has a strong case to outperform both in the weeks ahead.”
– deVere Group CEO Nigel Green
When the yen… How the Japanese currency affects Bitcoin
“Traders are waking up this Monday after a quiet Thanksgiving to an overwhelming sense of déjà vu, as a surge in the Japanese yen is once again playing havoc with markets. With the two-year Japanese yields also spiking to the highest level since 2008 and the likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan now at 76%, the Japanese yen carry trade is once again beginning to unwind.
“The last time we saw this, in August 2024, Bitcoin also plunged from over $66,000 to around $54,000 in just a few days, an 18% drop. Now that history is repeating itself, it’s wise to prepare for more volatility. As investors reckon with the new economic reality in Japan, we could see safe havens like gold hit new all-time highs in the short term.
“For Bitcoin, meanwhile, $85,000 – the 100-week exponential moving average – is emerging as the next support level. If BTC drops below that, $82,000 is the next key level to watch, which is emerging as the so-called ‘true market mean’ – and is also the cost basis for investors in the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT).
“However, it’s worth remembering that last time Bitcoin was spooked by the Japanese yen carry trade, it recovered and then hit new highs a few months later – by October 2024. Beyond Japan, the macro backdrop remains favorable for risk assets, with the Fed ending QT today and the chances of a rate cut on Dec. 10 now sitting at 87.6%. If you zoom out, there are still reasons to be optimistic amid all the doom and gloom.”
– Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of The Coin Bureau
Polish crypto veto brings risk
“As a global exchange operating under the European MiCA license, OKX consistently advocates for regulatory frameworks that are transparent, proportionate, and secure for users. The European MiCA regulation represents a positive and harmonized step, establishing the right standard – protecting investors without stifling innovation in the European and local markets, including Poland.
“We are closely monitoring the shaping of the Polish legislative landscape. The new proposal must focus on balance – effective consumer protection while simultaneously fostering innovation and the competitiveness of the local market. Regulations should organize the market, rather than risk pushing dynamically developing businesses abroad.
“We believe Poland to be a strategically important market for OKX and the wider cryptocurrency industry. We remain fully committed to our operations across the EEA and stand ready to work with regulators to ensure consistent, MiCA-aligned frameworks that safeguard users while avoiding additional national requirements that could hinder innovation and reduce competitiveness in the digital asset market.”
– Erald Ghoos, CEO OKX Europe
Bitcoin’s bounceback
“Bitcoin has staged a remarkable recovery over the past 24 hours, driven by a perfect storm of good news that has finally tipped the balance over in favor of the bulls. Firstly, we’re seeing more and more dominoes fall as even the staunchest opponents of crypto succumb to investor demand, with Vanguard finally lifting its long-standing ban on Bitcoin ETFs.
“Secondly, Bank of America is now recommending a 1%-4% portfolio allocation to crypto, which could bring up to $700 billion in extra liquidity into this asset – of course, with the caveat that not all households will choose to add crypto to their portfolios.
“And then, it also looks likely that crypto-savvy rate-cut proponent Kevin Hassett will be the next Fed chair. With a rate cut on Dec. 10 largely priced in, all eyes are now on 2026 monetary policy expectations, and so Hassett would be a welcome appointment for markets.
“As a result, Bitcoin has shot up to a key resistance level between $93,000 and $95,000, which also acted as a resistance zone back in April. If it pushes through this, it will attempt to breach the $100,000 threshold again, with the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) at $102,000 a key level to watch. It all depends on whether US buyers continue this momentum when the New York market opens this morning.
“It’s encouraging that BTC has held steady above the $82,000 support level, and broke through the $89,000 – the cost basis for all ETF buyers. We’re not out of the woods yet, but December may be shaping up to be a far better month than its predecessor, and a Santa rally is certainly not off the cards.”
– Puckrin, Dec. 3
“Bitcoin’s bounce over the past 48 hours has surprised a lot of people. You get used to dramatic pullbacks after a few years, but still. The sudden surge feels less like some grand macro shift and more like traders realizing they overshot on the sell side and scrambling to rebuy.
“Short term, I’m leaning cautiously bullish. If BTC can hold these higher levels for another day or two, you’ll probably see people pile back in just because they hate feeling left out.”
Sky, founder of LIKWID
“Bitcoin’s recent rebound has seen the market regain its footing after last week’s major shake-out. One clear sign of that shift is the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which has climbed to 28 (fear) from 15 (extreme fear) just a week ago.
“While the prevailing sentiment of apprehension is still palpable, the jump suggests traders are starting to step back from the outright panic that was dominating sentiment. In the short term, this recovery puts Bitcoin in a better position to stabilize, as extreme fear usually marks exhaustion on the sell side. If the index keeps drifting upward and BTC holds recent gains, you could see a more constructive tone return, even if confidence is still pretty fragile.”
– David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol
“There is always a lot of hope at the beginning of a deep bear market (which I call Bitcoin Fall) that every rally is a sure sign of a new all-time high around the corner, but they’re usually wrong.
“But the resistance to get back above $126k is deep, and every failed attempt to climb that wall discourages the bulls and vitalizes the bears. The most likely path from here is down to the highs of four years ago, potentially a little lower, until all of the short-term speculators have been cleared out and seeds of the next bull market begin as we enter Bitcoin Winter in late 2026.”
– Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures and author of Bitcoin Supercycle
“Bitcoin’s recovery over the past 48 hours is not a surprise; it’s a reminder that the asset is nowhere near done. Anyone expecting Bitcoin to end the year under $100K doesn’t understand how institutional capital behaves at this stage of the cycle.
“We are now in an era where sovereign wealth funds, major corporates, and traditional financial institutions are structurally accumulating BTC. Volatility is just noise around a long-term trajectory that continues to steepen as macro uncertainty grows and as global investors seek assets untethered from political turbulence.
“In the short term, expect sharp swings, but the directional bias remains undeniably upward. The capital flows tell the real story, and they’ve only just begun.”
– Dylan Dewdney, co-founder and CEO of Kuvi.ai