It is not just about sports…
Betting on regime change pertaining to Iran is trending on Polymarket as the population takes to the streets across the country, as it challenges the repressive Khamenei dictatorship.
As it stands today, only 18% of bettors believe Khamenei will no longer be the Supreme Leader by January 31, 2026 – just a couple of weeks away.
The percentage rises when you give it a bit more time, as 29% anticipate Khamenei’s exit by March 31, 2026.
A separate event bet with only one date sees a 35% of Khamenei’s downfall
Extending to mid-year, 45% anticipate Khamenei’s departure by June 30, 2026. At the same time, Iranian heir Reza Pahlavi is predicted to enter Iran by 28%.
Add an attack into the mix by a joint Israel/US engagement, and 42% expect military action by January 31, 2026.
There are plenty more events pertaining to Iran that Polymarket users can bet on.
As events in Iran are exceptionally fluid, with reports on social media that some of the leadership have already fled the country, and videos have emerged showing protesters gunned down by security forces, the situation could change within hours or days.
Last night, Polymarket shared a video that shows the first government building in Iran’s capital, Tehran, has been set ablaze.
BREAKING: The first government building in Iran’s capital, Tehran, has been set ablaze.pic.twitter.com/jifgGPuHXJ
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 9, 2026
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