André Dragosch, PhD, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, has highlighted a significant evolution in Bitcoin’s relationship with worldwide financial conditions. In a fresh examination of global money supply data, his team found that Bitcoin’s responsiveness to liquidity changes has risen markedly in recent years.
Since 2020, the cryptocurrency’s beta coefficient relative to liquidity measures has reached 2.80—almost twice the level observed in the high-profile “Magnificent 7” technology stocks and well above that of gold.
This development carries important implications heading into the second quarter of 2026.
First, Bitcoin now functions as a highly attuned gauge for movements in global M2 money supply.
With its elevated beta, the asset appears tightly linked to periods of monetary expansion or tightening, effectively serving as a real-time barometer for broader liquidity conditions.
Second, while traditional equities tend to respond primarily to corporate earnings and business fundamentals, Bitcoin demonstrates an outsized reaction to adjustments in the overall monetary base.
This “factor loading” underscores its unique position as a macro-sensitive instrument rather than a conventional equity play.
Third, analysts at Bitwise Europe point to a notable statistical disconnect currently unfolding.
Liquidity indicators that have historically driven Bitcoin’s performance are diverging from its present market valuation.
This gap raises questions about whether prevailing prices fully reflect the underlying monetary environment or if an adjustment lies ahead. To explore these dynamics in greater depth, Dragosch will participate in the monthly Bitcoin Macro Investor discussion.
He will be joined by Matthew Hougan and Bradley Duke to examine the detailed factor loadings and assess whether the current phase of macro “compression” may be approaching a critical turning point.
The session is expected to offer professional investors a clearer picture of how liquidity trends could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months. However, nothing can be confirmed as certain given the highly unpredictable political and economic environment.
The discussion is intended for qualified professional investors and is not directed at retail audiences. And despite considerable progress in digital assets regulations, crypto trading and investing still remains fairly unregulated (or loosely regulated) in many jurisdictions, exhibit extreme volatility, and carry substantial risk of loss. But so do other more established asset classes and even precious metals such as gold, as we have seen with the US-Iran conflict now unfolding.
Investors could lose their entire capital, with no applicable investor protection schemes or compensation arrangements. As always is the case in financial markets, historical performance should not be viewed as indicative of future outcomes.
This analysis from Bitwise Europe arrives at a pivotal moment, as institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow amid fluctuating global monetary policies. By quantifying the asset’s heightened liquidity beta, the report provides a data-driven lens through which market participants can evaluate potential risks and opportunities in the months ahead.
As central banks navigate inflation targets and liquidity settings, Bitcoin’s role as a sensitive proxy for these forces may become even more pronounced.