Bitcoin has recently caught a bid as investors have changed their minds and bought the world’s most popular crypto. While BTC is trading at around $79,000, up considerably from last month, it is still below where it started at the beginning of 2026, when it traded at around $88,000.
Nic Puckrin, a macro analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, says the recent rally in Bitcoin’s price seems rather fragile.
Puckrin explains:
“Bitcoin’s brief recovery above $80,000 is looking shaky. It’s being driven by easing oil prices rather than strong buying, with Brent back below $110 on the news of President Trump’s Project Freedom. However, while this gives Bitcoin room to breathe for now, the two have been strongly inversely correlated throughout the war. If Brent surges above $110 again, the downward pressure on BTC will return in full force. If Bitcoin can’t hold above $79,500 today, a meaningful move higher becomes less likely.”
Puckerin says gold has lost momentum after a solid 2025. Year to date, gold has risen by 6.3% but this increase is most likely over for this cycle. While admitting that momentum can return, “history suggests we’re now in for several lackluster years.”
Puckerin also believes that the US dollar index is losing its safe-haven bid.
“The Iran war, which at first scared investors back into the greenback, is now having the opposite effect. Nations across the globe – from South Korea to Taiwan – are looking to diversify away from dollar-denominated assets. The risks are to the downside for both assets.”
Regarding more traditional equities, Puckerin notes that the US stock market has ignored the conflict in the gulf but the AI trade which is supporting markets is becoming crowded.
“One sign of this I’m watching is random companies outside the sector pivoting to AI to save their struggling share prices, including a Japanese toilet maker. This is eerily reminiscent of the Bitcoin corporate treasury trend of last year, and could be a harbinger of a major sell-off. It’s a signal that should make any investor very nervous.”
