Web3 minds also weighed in on BTC and XRP this week.
“Against a more unsettling macro backdrop (with hotter-than-expected US inflation prints, a still elusive US-Iran peace agreement, markets pricing out a 2026 rate cut), BTC has traded between $79K and $81K over the past 24 hours. It’s also been supported by institutional demand, with Spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing just over $1B in net flows month-to-date, showing investor appetite towards Bitcoin remains strong in the face of such headwinds.
“Options markets, however, continue to scale back the premium they demand for protection against uncertainty. Volatility expectations are compressed at all forward horizons, with short-dated options trading close to their year-to-date lows (with implied volatility at a historical low of 30%). This suggests little sign of panic against a more uncertain macro and geopolitical backdrop. That’s largely in line with BTC moving with a far lower level of volatility, which at 26% is equally near its year-to-date lows.
“Still, despite Bitcoin being up 12% over the past 30 days, options markets don’t show much directional conviction. Skew for both BTC and ETH for seven-day contracts show a two vol point premium for OTM put options — downside hedging has eased, but this clearly shows that markets are still protecting themselves against downward moves.
“There’s also no obvious event risk priced in by either BTC or altcoin options ahead of the Senate CLARITY Act markup. That contrasts with what we see in options contracts for Coinbase’s COIN options market. There, we do see an embedded implied vol premium in the May-15 contract, which covers the debate date, suggesting traders are clearly pricing for the bill to act as a catalyst for companies that stand to benefit from the regulatory clarity, but not for BTC.
– Andrew Melville, head of research, and Thahbib Rahman, research analyst at Block Scholes
“The real story of XRP in mid-2026 will not be its consolidating price, but the quiet, almost imperceptible rewiring of global finance. While some lament a market seemingly unable to imagine alternatives beyond existing arrangements, I see a different narrative unfolding.
“The divergence between network utility and a consolidating token price is not a red flag. With legal clouds lifted and institutional capital proving remarkably sticky, the XRP Ledger is transforming into a compliance-grade tokenization and settlement layer, speaking the precise language that institutional capital does.
“The doors that were previously closed to pension funds, asset managers, and bank treasuries are officially open. Furthermore, market forecasts indicate that if regulatory conditions continue to improve, such as the potential advancement of the CLARITY Act soon, we could see an additional $4–$8 billion in ETF inflows, which bodes well for the XRPL.
“Price often follows utility, but rarely on the schedule that impatient markets expect. This phase is about the fundamental architecture of trust and value transfer, finally aligning with the demands of the real economy.”
– Alexis Sirkia, leader of Yellow