Ravelin’s Global Fraud Trends 2026 report outlines evolving fraud trends. While there is stability and even decline in some metrics, new concerns have arisen with issues like AI. Ravelin surveyed 1,504 professionals across 10 countries.
Fraud still hits companies hard. At least 30% of companies report:
- Lost revenue (48%);
- Poor customer satisfaction & churn (38%);
- Operational costs (36%);
- Stolen customer PII (34%); and
- Bad press/Brand damage (social & traditional media) (32%).
Roughly 42% of companies lost more than $10 million to fraud, with the average loss $11.4 million. The same percentage lost more than 1.1% of their revenue to fraud; 5% lost more than 4%.
Ravelin: Merchants fear reputational damage
Respondents are very concerned about fraud-related reputational risk. Around 80% agree that publicity around fraud erodes loyalty and trust, while 64% have experienced stock price drops due to negative publicity. Ravelin recommends that companies promote their strong fraud defences.
Fraud is becoming manageable for some merchants, with more reporting stability or modest declines. Credit may go to stronger controls, greater operational maturity, and wider use of data- led prevention.
Ravelin also asked respondents for their experiences with specific fraud types:
- Online payment (CNP) – 21% saw a significant increase, 43% said it somewhat increased;
- Friendly fraud – 15% significant, 37% somewhat;
- Account takeover – 15% significant, 28% somewhat;
- Promo/voucher/policy abuse – 14% significant, 33% somewhat;
- Refund abuse – 18% significant, 36% somewhat; and
- Supplier, partner and marketplace seller abuse – 12% significant, 30% somewhat.
“Merchants continue to see abuse and fraud as a meaningful customer-behavior risk, although the picture appears relatively stable, likely reflecting a balance between increasingly sophisticated tactics, such as AI-generated evidence, and stronger review processes, tighter policies, and more targeted intervention,” Ravelin states.
AI risk increasing
AI is clearly a surging risk. Close to 60% saw it used against them in the past year, while 81% estimate that up to 15% of fraud they saw was AI-influenced. Two-thirds have knowingly received an AI-generated fake fraud invoice.
Merchants are clamoring for better tools.
- 66% feel pressured to refund customers even when there is evidence they are misrepresenting the quality/condition of items;
- 55% struggle to quantify the scale of their refund abuse/policy abuse problem;
- 60% have difficulty telling when a legitimate cardholder is misrepresenting the truth to gain money or items, or making a genuine claim;
- 55% say their Customer Service team(s) lack the tools and training to effectively challenge suspicious refund claims; and
- 69% of companies consider customer loyalty and brand reputation more important than stopping refund abuse.
There is some hope. While the majority received requests to refund 2-5% of sales (the same as last year), more reported refunds of 0.1-2%. Many believe fewer of their refunds are actually abusive.
The top fraud-fighting tactics were deemed to be multi-factor authentication, including 3D Secure technology; biometrics; and GenAI tech. Many merchants don’t use top options like AI-based machine learning and graph network link analysis. Why not?
- 29% Concerns about customer friction;
- 29% Concerns about public image;
- 24% Lack of developer/IT resources;
- 24% Legacy and/or unsuitable technology;
- 24% Operational inefficiency;
- 23% Lack of executive priority;
- 22% Budget constraints;
- 20% Data visibility gaps;
- 20% Talent shortage; and
- 13% Siloed internal teams.
Despite some headwinds, many merchants feel positive about the fraud battle. While just more than half, (52%), expect overall fraud pressure to rise, Ravelin found a greater share expect stability or a decline this year than last.
“Almost 3 in 10 expect to see less fraud in the next 12 months,” the report states. “This may reflect growing confidence in stronger controls, increased automation, and more mature data-led fraud management, even as fraud remains a persistent business risk.”