The election tomorrow for the US President will be close. That is viewed as a given. As many people on both sides of the fence view the election as “the most important election in our lifetime” the electorate will be watching the outcome closely. So who will win in the battle between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris? And how will the election impact the US and its policies going forward including key aspects of the economy and engagement abroad? Well, that depends on who you ask.
Of interest is the fact that this cycle is the first Presidential election to see the participation of betting platforms augmenting pollster predictions. We all know that many polls are suspect and frequently wrong. Will the market do a better job in predicting the outcome?
Earlier today, CI received betting odds from Oddschecker, one of the UK’s largest betting aggregators. Oddschecker compares odds and takes bets from 25+ of the nation’s biggest bookmakers. OddsChecker anticipate a Trump victor with current betting odds projecting a Trump win at 57%, compared to 43% for Harris.
Oddschecker adds that over the weekend, 50.8% of total bets placed through Oddschecker have backed Trump to win with 49.2% for Harris. Oddschecker also shares a breakdown of the battleground states:
Arizona
REP: 71%
DEM: 29%
Georgia
REP: 63%
DEM: 37%
Michigan
DEM: 65%
REP: 35%
Nevada
REP: 63%
DEM: 37%
North Carolina
REP: 63%
DEM: 37%
Pennsylvania
REP: 51%
DEM: 49%
Wisconsin
DEM: 58%
REP: 42%
So, how does this compare to other Prediction Markets?
Polymarket currently shows a Trump victory too with the former President holding a 57.9% of victory over Vice President Harris’ 42.3% chance. There has been over $1.26 billion in contract volume for Trump and $794 million for Harris. Trump has been gaining in the last few hours.
Kalshi has shown a Trump bump in the last 24 hours after displaying a tiny Harris lead just two days ago. Kalshi currently anticipates a 54% chance for Trump and a 46% chance for Harris—a four-point drop since November 2nd.
Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ:IBKR) is aligning with both Kalshi and Polymarker at Trump is predicted to win by 57% versus 44% for Harris.
PredictIt is an outlier as it currently shows the election as a total toss-up.
The predictions are changing by the minute, and it will be interesting to see how the probabilities change on election day. Other races are also part of the prediction market.
Hopefully, tomorrow will bring a clear victory, and the country can move forward. Many individuals are predicting a split government, which markets love. A split government deters radical changes, as compromise is needed between the two parties.