PitchBook noted in a new report that consumer retail and services deal activity recovered in Q4 2024 from an “uncharacteristically” quiet Q3 by doubling to an “estimated 377 announced or closed deals.”
PitchBook also mentioned in the research report that Q4 was effectively on par with 2022’s quarterly activity levels.
The report added that they now anticipate dealmaking “to accelerate, albeit modestly in the immediate future.”
The team at PitchBook further noted that consumer staples transactions drove the acceleration in Q4, which “jumped from 44 to 91 deals.”
The research report also stated that food, beverage, cannabis & grocery was the most active constituent segment “with 40 transactions, followed by home goods with 38 transactions and automotive with 33 transactions.”
By PitchBook’s read, the market is prioritizing staple categories “with low barriers to entry—the more discretionary the product and the higher the entry cost, the more challenged the outlook.”
According to the analysis, dealmaking is now approaching a turning point.
The update also pointed out that aggregate deal activity in 2024 “signaled a turnaround for PE writ large with double-digit growth in deal count and value, fueled by lower base interest rates and tighter credit spreads, which helped reduce financing costs and align buyers’ and sellers’ valuation expectations.”
The report from PitchBook added that moderating inflation and improved credit availability also “improved the outlook for large transactions (those exceeding $1 billion in value).”
Q4 tapered somewhat amid election uncertainty, but “green shoots are visible.”
Valuation gaps are narrowing, and exits are building up as well, the report added.
In summary, PE dealmaking in consumer retail rebounded in Q4 2024, with deal volume “doubling over a sluggish Q3—and 2025 could mark a turning point for the vertical.”
PitchBook’s latest research analyzed key economic trends driving PE activity.
After years of aggressive acquisitions, firms are now said to be “reassessing their portfolios.”
From lower interest rates, tariff uncertainty, and shifting consumer sentiment, the consumer retail space is “undergoing a change”—and the report highlights what it “could all mean and why a blockbuster year could be on the horizon.”