Polymarket has a listing on its platform where you can bet on a recession in the US. Currently, there is a 48% chance a recession will be forthcoming in 2025.
According to the rules of the market, a “yes” is confirmed if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announces that the US is in a recession at any point in 2025. This would mean that real GDP has been negative for two consecutive quarters.
The probability of a recession jumped in recent days following President Trump’s announcement on global tariffs. At the beginning of the year, estimates stood at around 20%.
On a positive note, no recession is still beating out those who anticipate negative growth for two consecutive quarters. This being said, competitor Kalshi is more pessimistic with recession expectations at a 56% chance. Of course, much of this will revolve around how the Trump administration resolves its tariff battle and whether countries will come to the table or choose to cross swords.
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