Not too long ago, CI reported that event betting platform Polymarket indicated a chance of recession at 65%.
Yesterday, President Trump reversed his aggressive tariff posture announcing a 90 day pause on previously announced penalties. Markets rocketed higher following the news.
For a moment, all was good and everyone celebrated. The chance of recession on Polymarket dropped to under 50%.
Today, a more sober assessment has too over as markets reliaze there are still very many known, unknowns. Markets are in retreat giving up some its gains, and the chance of a recession have jumped once again. At this moment, Polymarket has the probability at 60% – not too far off its previous percentage.
Competitor Kalshi is matching the same percentage chance at this moment.
The only guarantee right now is volatility.
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