Australia’s labor market remains fairly resilient, with wages now said to be ticking higher and job growth steady, according to Commonwealth Bank’s Wage & Labor Insights report. The report draws on de-identified salary flows from about 400,000 CBA accounts to offer an early snapshot of wages and employment trends, offering a detailed view of “shifting conditions at potential policy turning points” ahead of official ABS data.
The CBA Wage Insights showed a “0.8 per cent rise over the quarter and 3.2 per cent over the year, up from 3.1 per cent in October but still below the late-2024 peak of 4.1 per cent.”
CBA Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen said the slight lift is notable in the current environment.
“The CBA Wage Insights series shows wage growth ticked a little higher in November after recent moderation. While wages growth has still eased over the past year, the slight tick up in November is worth watching, especially when combined with recent higher-than-expected inflation prints and Q3 25 GDP data showing the Australian economy has reached its speed limit. If wages continue to strengthen, the risk of rate hikes in 2026 will rise.”
Western Australia continues to record “the fastest wages growth at 4.2%, while the Northern Territory sits at 2.3%.”
Labor Insights show 26,000 jobs added in November
The CBA Labor Insights estimates around “26,000 jobs were added in November, a slight increase compared with September and October.”
Allen said:
“November’s increase in jobs highlights a labor market that is neither overheating nor weakening. This balance is critical as we look ahead to how wage trends and inflation will shape policy decisions.”
Allen noted that the RBA is paying close attention to labor-market dynamics.
“The RBA is closely watching dynamics in pricing and labor market activity. We expect the RBA to remain on hold from here but the data flow on inflation and the labour market will be critical.”
The mix of a modest pickup in wages, “steady employment growth and recent upside inflation surprises supports a cautious on-hold stance from the RBA.”
The early-read indicators in the report will help “detect turning points in labor-market momentum – whether signs of re-tightening that could add to inflation or softening that would support progress back to target.”
Allen continued:
“Labor market resilience is a key factor for the RBA. With jobs growth holding firm and wages edging higher, the case for keeping rates on hold remains strong while policymakers monitor inflation closely.”