Geopolitics has Web3 thinking about Bitcoin and ETH price movements this week.
Strait of Hormuz blockade effects
“Bitcoin is becoming one of the most accurate barometers of geopolitical shocks when markets are closed. This weekend, BTC went on a rollercoaster ride as hopes for US-Iran peace talks were dashed, culminating in a fresh blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
“Having lost nearly $4,000 in just over 24 hours, BTC is barely holding above $70k. If it breaks down below this level, $65k beckons. Futures suggest the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones will follow suit when the US market opens, erasing their best week of gains since November.
“According to a recent report by Binance, weekend crypto trading now predicts Monday’s Wall Street moves with an 89% accuracy. This makes Bitcoin an important indicator to watch during this tumultuous time for markets.
“Looking ahead, everything once again hinges on what happens with the Strait. Brent has already spiked back above $100 on the news of the blockade, and could easily continue toward the $110-$120 range.
This will quickly reignite stagflation fears. Friday already showed the impact of higher oil prices on CPI numbers, and while this is widely seen as temporary for now, that assessment could quickly change if oil remains above $100 for the rest of April and into May.
“There’s only so long that markets can remain as precariously balanced as they are now, and that threshold is quickly approaching. Once that balance breaks down, stagflation fears could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, turning into the dominant story of 2026. A prolonged bear market in risk assets becomes the base case in this scenario.”
– Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau
Bitcoin markets
“Bitcoin is breaking out of the daily downward trendline it has followed for the last six months. If it manages to close above $74,000 today (April 14), the next resistance levels to watch in the short term are at $76,000 and $79,000. The former marks a double top, where the rally could get rejected, while the latter is the 50% level from the last major leg down from its January high to its February low.
“However, in the longer term, Bitcoin is still driven by the macro backdrop, and the situation hasn’t changed materially enough to warrant a broader recovery. Even if it bounced back above $80,000, we could quickly see a retracement back to sub-$70k levels, marking the fifth and final leg down for this bear market cycle.”
– Puckrin
“The price of BTC is trying to recover, while moving in a flat trend. However, it is important to pay attention to the ETH/BTC ratio, which has grown to its maximum since the beginning of the year. ETH continues to be the leader of the second-tier coins.
“Historically, positive dynamics not only in BTC, but also in second-tier coins often signalled the beginning of the end of the local crypto winter and the beginning of a new growth of the entire crypto currency market as a whole.
“The current price of BTC (approximately $74,000-$75,000) is the average entry price for holders of the American BTC-ETF. And those investors who have endured the drawdown of the BTC price below $60,000 are likely to continue to hold their coins. Without putting additional pressure on quotes. This may additionally support local prices in the short term.
“Among the positive facts, it is also important to note that in the first quarter of 2026, the number of new users on a chain of Ethereum increased by more than 80% compared to the previous quarter, and also compared to the previous quarter, stablecoin supply on Ethereum reached a new all-time high on Ethereum.
“The growth was more than 150% in three years. Ethereum occupies 60% of the stablecoins market. In the coming years, the network will continue to receive a supply of stablecoins, which in the long run will strongly support ETH quotes.
“In the short term, rumors began to appear on the market about the potential for the Fed to cut rates this year. Market participants include in the quotes the possibility of additional liquidity inflow to the crypto market. That will also be able to act as price support for cryptocurrencies.”
– Sergei Gorev, head of risk, YouHodler