Carta’s latest analysis of venture capital fund performance reveals that for the most part the industry remains profoundly top-heavy, with elite performers widening their lead over the pack. Drawing on data from 2,906 funds spanning vintages 2017 to 2025, the report underscores how a handful of breakout startups drive outsized outcomes that define progress for the best investors.
In the extensive research report, Carta highlights the growing disparity at the upper end of returns.
For 2019 vintage funds, the 90th percentile TVPI reached 3.01× by year-end, far surpassing the 75th percentile’s 1.9×.
The spread between top-decile and top-quartile results dwarfs the gaps lower down the curve—between the 75th percentile and median (1.33×) or median and 25th percentile (1.02×). Similar patterns appear across every vintage from 2017 to 2024.
In 2017, for example, top-decile funds achieved 4.08× TVPI compared to 2.53× at the 75th percentile and 1.89× at the median.
This distribution reflects venture capital’s core dynamic: a small number of companies deliver 100× or even 1,000× returns, while most investments yield modest gains or none at all.
Carta also pointed out that funds that capture even one or two such outliers post exceptional multiples that more than offset portfolio underperformers.
The result is a winner-take-most environment where the top tier continues to separate itself. Several encouraging signs emerged in Q4 2025.
Median net IRRs for 2021 and 2022 vintages finally moved into positive territory, reaching 1.4% and 0.7% respectively.
Earlier vintages (2017–2020) already show at least 4.2% median IRR, consistent with the classic J-curve pattern where early negative returns give way to appreciation as portfolios mature.
Distributions to limited partners are also accelerating: over half of 2020 vintage funds have now recorded some DPI, with roughly 15% initiating their first payouts in 2025.
Among 2021 funds, about one-third have begun returning capital; the figure stands just under 25% for both 2022 and 2023 vintages. Dry powder levels remain elevated in newer funds.
The 2025 vintage still holds 72% of its $12 billion in committed capital unspent.
The 2024 cohort retains 53%, while 2023 funds have 35% remaining. Combined, these three vintages account for more than $19 billion in undeployed capital.
Deployment rates have predictably increased with age: 2021 funds hold just 16% unspent, and pre-2021 vintages show minimal dry powder variation.
Fundraising patterns show continuity with subtle shifts. Roughly 89% of funds manage under $100 million, yet vehicles over $100 million—representing only 11% of the total—control 52% of the $120.7 billion in aggregate commitments.
The $25–100 million segment commands the largest absolute capital pool at $40.7 billion.
New fund size distribution has stayed relatively stable, with 36–38% of vehicles falling in the $1–10 million range and 10–11% exceeding $100 million.
However, capital allocation tilted slightly less toward mega-funds in 2025 (56% versus 62% in 2024).
Carta pointed out that median LP counts have held steady or declined modestly, particularly among larger vehicles, while anchor check sizes have shown reduced volatility in recent years.
Carta’s Q4 2025 update indicates a maturing yet still highly asymmetric asset class. While newer vintages continue to build value and return capital to LPs, the ultimate performers remain undecided for now at least. In venture capital, the data confirms, exceptional performance is rare—but when it occurs, it more than justifies the pursuit.