PitchBook has indicated in a research report that North American venture capital assets under management (AUM) are projected to expand from approximately $1.5 trillion at the end of 2025 to $2 trillion by 2030, representing a 30% increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4%, according to PitchBook’s latest analysis. This marks a considerable slowdown compared to the relatively fast expansion of the prior decade, seemingly signaling a return to more disciplined fundamentals in the sector.
The forecast made in the research report underscores a shift away from the macro-driven surges seen during low-interest-rate periods. Much of the recent AUM growth occurred in 2021, when figures jumped sharply before plateauing.
Since 2022, limited partners (LPs) have faced negative net cash flows as distributions, deal activity, and fundraising moderated.
Valuations have adjusted toward business realities, with median non-AI step-ups now at 1.6x versus higher multiples in prior boom years. As a result, 2025 AUM stands only modestly above 2021 levels.
PitchBook further explained that a defining feature of the current environment is extreme concentration, which widens the gap between upside and downside scenarios—projecting $2.6 trillion or $1.6 trillion by 2030, respectively.
AI dominates deal flow: in Q1 2026, 42.5% of U.S. deals involved AI companies, up dramatically from a decade earlier, while a single large OpenAI round captured nearly half of quarterly U.S. deal value.
Fundraising is similarly top-heavy, with 73.1% of Q1 capital flowing to just five firms. Geographically, nearly half of North American VC AUM resides on the West Coast, centered on Bay Area AI activity, while Canada’s share is expected to decline slightly.
This narrow focus creates both opportunity and vulnerability. Large firms channeling capital into overlapping AI portfolios heighten correlation risks, amplifying the potential for widespread impacts from successes or setbacks.
Venture secondaries have emerged as a vital liquidity mechanism, generating over $112 billion in the US in the trailing four quarters through Q1 2026.
These trades remain concentrated among top names but provide crucial exits where traditional channels have lagged.
Evergreen structures are also growing, from an estimated $81 billion in 2025 to $114 billion by 2030, though VC’s illiquid nature limits their scalability compared to other private asset classes.
The most influential factor for 2026 and beyond centers on anticipated public listings from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic.
These could collectively raise sums rivaling all US VC-backed IPOs from the past decade, with SpaceX alone targeting $50-75 billion.
PitchBook also pointed out that strong post-IPO performance would boost LP confidence, spur distributions, recycle capital, and broaden the exit pipeline.
Conversely, weak market reception—echoing challenges faced by recent unicorns—could prolong the liquidity freeze and pressure valuations.
Macro headwinds, including policy uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical tensions, add further variability. In the downside case, failure to realize AI’s commercial potential could constrain profitability and dry powder deployment.
PitchBook has concluded that it views the relatively tempered growth trajectory positively. It now also encourages a focus on proper underwriting and genuine value creation over reliance on favorable conditions or outlier winners. Success in the AI sector, which has already reshaped industries, combined with effective liquidity events, could potentially restore momentum.