Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has publicly rejected a high-profile forecast that artificial intelligence will trigger a sharp collapse in Bitcoin. In a September 7 exchange on X, he said he stands on the opposite side of a claim that AI will erode confidence in Bitcoin’s security and drive its price down by more than half within two years.
He added that roughly 90 percent of his personal wealth is already exposed to that view.
I claim (50% confidence) that BTC prices will crash 50%+ in the next 2 years because of AI undermining what people imagined were its security or robustness guarantees.
— Liron Shapira (@liron) September 6, 2026
The original prediction came from Silicon Valley angel investor and AI-risk commentator Liron Shapira.
On September 6, Shapira wrote that he assigned 50 percent confidence to Bitcoin falling 50 percent or more over the next two years.
His reasoning was that rapid AI progress could undermine the security and robustness assumptions that many investors treat as given.
I take the opposite side of that.
My basic reasons are that I am quite optimistic about cybersecurity in the long term and I see the primary problem as being getting the transition, and I expect BTC to handle at least any issues that do not require social consensus well…
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) September 7, 2026
Buterin replied the following day.
He said he remains optimistic about long-term cybersecurity and views the main challenge as managing the transition period rather than an imminent cryptographic failure.
In his assessment, Bitcoin can address most threats that do not require a change in social consensus.
Examples include software updates to client programs and mining-pool adjustments that would blunt network-layer attacks.
He described the chance of an actual break in Bitcoin’s hash functions or proof-of-work system as “tiny.”
Because his existing portfolio is heavily concentrated in crypto assets—chiefly ether—he said he is already effectively making the wager.
A parenthetical remark noted that he assumes Shapira would take a similar stance on Ethereum, since a fundamental cryptographic failure would not be limited to one chain.
The comment is consistent with earlier disclosures.
In May 2026 Buterin stated that nearly 90 percent of his net worth sits in ETH, with the remainder allocated to on-chain fiat already committed to open-source projects.
A successful AI-driven assault on the cryptographic primitives shared by both networks would therefore hit his holdings directly.
The exchange highlights a split in how observers weigh AI risk.
One camp worries that advanced systems could discover weaknesses in SHA-256 or related primitives fast enough to shatter market confidence.
The other, represented by Buterin, treats core cryptographic collapse as remote and expects incremental technical upgrades to handle most practical threats.
Bitcoin was trading near $80,000 at the time of the posts, after a recent high above $82,000.
A 50 percent decline would take the price below $40,000 by 2028.
Buterin’s remarks focus on protocol resilience rather than short-term price targets, yet they amount to a high-conviction statement given the size of his personal exposure.
The debate is likely to continue as AI capabilities advance. For now, one of crypto’s most prominent figures has made clear that he is betting—already, and with the bulk of his fortune—that Bitcoin’s foundational security will hold.
