Federal regulators have quietly authorized multiple inquiries into unusual activity on a major prediction-markets platform, according to internal records released through a public-records request. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) signed off on at least three previously undisclosed probes into Polymarket event contracts tied to last-minute clemency decisions by former
President Joe Biden, developments involving Iran, and Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings.
Documents reviewed by reporters show that Chairman Michael Selig approved the first of these investigations in early May 2026.
That order authorized the enforcement division to issue subpoenas, take testimony, and collect records related to possible misuse of nonpublic information in markets forecasting whether Biden would grant preemptive pardons.
The authorization followed news coverage of an anonymous trader who booked more than $300,000 by correctly anticipating pardons for several high-profile political figures in the final hours of the administration.
The records themselves do not name specific traders or trades under review.
Later the same month, Selig approved a second inquiry focused on “Iran event contracts.”
That decision came shortly after a television report highlighted a cluster of accounts that generated about $2.4 million with an unusually high success rate on Iran-related questions.
Again, the official order contained little operational detail.
A third investigation received approval in July.
Internal correspondence indicated it would examine additional people who may have traded on nonpublic information connected to Google’s annual search rankings.
Officials noted that the effort would be distinct from an already-public case against a former Google engineer accused of using confidential internal data to profit more than $1 million on similar contracts.
Prosecutors in the Southern District of New York were described as running a parallel inquiry.
The agency has not publicly confirmed the status of any of the three matters and did not respond to questions about them.
Prediction market operators have said they routinely flag suspicious activity to authorities and cooperate with reviews.
The inquiries do not, by themselves, establish that anyone broke the law.
The disclosures arrive amid broader debate over how event contracts should be treated under commodities rules.
Prediction markets have grown rapidly, attracting both retail interest and questions about whether some participants enjoy unfair informational advantages.
Separate enforcement actions have already produced arrests in other Polymarket cases, including one involving a US service member and another involving the Google engineer.
Those defendants have argued that the trades amount to wagering rather than regulated commodity activity.
Regulators have also examined activity on competing platforms. The latest records illustrate that the CFTC continues to open targeted investigations even as the industry expands and political connections around some platforms draw public attention. Whether the three newly revealed probes produce charges, settlements, or no further action remains unknown.