Valmar Capital, a digital assets multi-manager multi-strategy platform,
notes that volumes, in particular, the 7-day ADV across spot and futures markets are all markedly “lower than the prior week as activity going into the BTC ETF event has waned.”
Valmar Capital stated in an extensive update that the 7D Average Daily Volumes for BTC spot is “at $11B (-38% w/w). 7D ADV for ETH spot fell as well but not as much as for BTC ($5.2B, -16%). 7D ADV on futures products track similarly – 7D ADV end the week at $40.9B (-30%) for BTC futures and at $21.5B (-16%) for ETH futures.”
Valmar Capital also mentioned that futures open interest “for BTC is lower by 13% at $17.1B, while open interest for ETH is virtually unchanged at $8.2B.”
While commenting on volatility, Valmar Capital noted via LinkedIn that the 30D realized volatility on BTC and ETH is “virtually unchanged at 59 and 64, respectively.”
Meanwhile the 30D implied volatility “on BTC and ETH has creeped up a little on the week at 57 and 59, respectively.”
Going on to comment on the BTC and ETH price, Valmar Capital pointed out this week, BTC continued its slide “post ETF launch, trading down to $40k before finding some sponsorship. It will be interesting to see if it manages to establish a range between $40k and $45k. At the moment, BTC is trading at $41,600 (-3% w/w). ETH traded lower as well but held up better on the week. It currently trades at $2,490 (-1% w/w).”
While sharing insights on regulatory and policy developments, Valmar Capital noted in their extensive update that Coinbase and the SEC have “faced off in court this week, with the former seeking to have the latter’s case dismissed against it.”
The difference between Beanie Babies and securities “was hotly debated.”
Valmar Capital also mentioned that the world is “a strange and wonderful place. This is one we will keep a close eye on as the stakes are high.”
The biggest question, according to Valmar Capital, “after last week’s historic BTC ETF approval: what will the flow look like? Well, trading volumes look strong and inflows have surpassed $1 billion. The ETH ETF machine is currently heating up for a potential May decision.”
As noted in the update, the European Union will look “to institute new AML laws to crypto entities.”
Thanks to a US Federal Judge, the former CEO of Terra, Do Kwon, has “had his case pushed to March in hopes that he will be extradited to attend the proceedings.”
Despite FTX and SBF, crypto crime “was down nearly 1/3 in 2023,” according to a Chainalysis report.
Speaking of that criminal, his parents are trying “to hold on to each and every last drop. Wring them dry.”
While sharing insights on adoption, Valmar Capital noted that feeding into the retail enthusiasm in France and Coinbase’s move, Gemini will also look to “establish itself in the land of brie and baguettes.”
Hong-Kong based HashKey has achieved unicorn status “with its latest $100 million funding round.”
Valmar Capital added that they have “mentioned the Saudi Arabian fatwa last week that has deemed Bitcoin acceptable under Islam.”
And now Aramco Ventures will “receive a $4 billion injection to support forward-thinking ventures, such as digital technologies. Saudia Arabia looks to be hitting the gas pedal.”
Crypto and F1 seem like “a sensible match. Fast, fast, fast.”
Valmar Capital added that it is “no secret that fundraising for crypto in 2023 was akin to pushing a boulder up a hill.”
Progress demands capital, and in the year just past “with light wallets, many simply had to tighten their belts, eat peanut butter sandwiches, and push forward. At times, that’s part of the trade in emerging markets.”
Now that BTC ETF brought quite a bit of enthusiasm (certainly one of the catalysts we’ve been waiting for), many market participants “are hopeful that the fountain of capital will begin to flow again.”
On this, they have two “interrelated” points.
The firm shared:
“First, fundraising data often lags by a month to a quarter. Second, fundraising momentum is often driven by a general pickup in activity (see point #1). Taken together, this means we are not out of the woods yet. Within crypto we can now see and feel that warm light, but the reemergence of that light must be transferred to external investors and then that activity needs to froth into more activity. The BTC ETF feels good, but now is not a time for celebration, it is a time for redoubling of efforts to break the crack in the dam even further. Stay strong, stay motivated, stay hungry. Hungry dogs run faster.”