You have to love the community that has formed around Cloud Imperium Games’s upcoming release Star Citizen. The crowd that has formed around the game maintains various discussion communities around the Internet, not the least of which is the /r/starcitizen subreddit, which boasts almost 16,000 subscribers.
A thread posted to the subreddit yesterday caught our attention. It is a rather detailed predictive breakdown of where one user expects the campaign to end up in terms of funding…
- Current: $33.9 million, 323.7k Citizens
- January – Dogfighting module (SP): $40.4 million, 379k Citizens (Interval: 30 days with $80k/day and 850 Citizens per day + Christmas ($1 million and 5k Citizens). Module release: $3.125 million and 25,000 Citizens over 10 days.)
(Alpha slots are exhausted. I’m going to factor in an initial 40% drop in daily funding and new Citizens due to no more alpha slots going forward, with that effect decreasing as beta nears. Also, I will factor in increasing population of Citizens which tends to add momentum to the daily funding numbers.)
- February – Dogfighting module (MP): $45.2 million, 407k Citizens (Interval: 20 days since end of last module release effect with $50k/day and 500 Citizens per day + January Sale Bonus ($2.5 million, 8k Citizens). Module release: $1.25 million and 10k Citizens over 5 days.)
- April – Planetside/Social Module: $52.6 million, 460k Citizens (Interval: 55 days since end of last module release effect with $55k/day and 550 Citizens per day + March Sale Bonus ($2.5 million, 8k Citizens). Module release: $1.875 million, 15k Citizens over 10 days.)
- June – FPS/Ship Boarding Module: $59.6 million, 510k Citizens (Interval: 50 days since end of last module release effect with $60k/day and 600 Citizens per day + May Sale Bonus ($2.5 million, 8k Citizens). Module release: $1.50 million, 12k Citizens over 10 days.)
- September – Squadron 42 Alpha: $70.2 million, 594k Citizens (Interval: 80 days since end of last module release effect with $70k/day and 700 Citizens per day + July Sale Bonus ($2.5 million, 8k Citizens). Module release: $2.5 million, 20k Citizens over 10 days.)
- January 2015 – PU Beta: $95.9 million, 781k Citizens (Interval: 110 days since end of last module release effect with $90k/day and 900 Citizens per day + September Sale Bonus ($2.5 million, 8k Citizens) + Anniversary Sale ($5 million, 20k Citizens) + Christmas ($2 million, 10k Citizens). Module release: $6.25 million, 50k Citizens over 30 days.)
$95.9 million. Now that would be something.
Sound ridiculous? Even the OP admits that the number seems far-fetched, but at this point we wouldn’t put anything past Chris Roberts and his team.
Note that anything near $100 million would put Star Citizen in some seriously rarified air in terms of budgets for video games. There are major studios that don’t spend that much cash developing and marketing marquee titles. In short, it could substantiate crowdfunding even further as a means of raising capital for video games.
Funding has tapered off a bit as of late. The game has only raised over $100,000 in a day once in the last week. The previous two weeks drew $5 million into the campaign.
Part of the discussion was also the possible pending end of “alpha slots,” or the ability for backers to take part in the earliest beta testing of the game. The Kickstarter campaign for the game alluded to alpha slots being limited to 200,000 seats, but the game has already garnered well over that many early funders. Still, eventually that practice may end, and funding may taper off because of it.
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