Orchard Platform Predicts Super Bowl Outcome: So Who Will Win? The Falcons or the Patriots?

 

Orchard Platform has once again leveraged their deep data on online lending to predict the outcome of the SuperBowl. This will be the third year Orchard shifts gears and enters the odds-making space by using their data magic to divine a sporting event outcome

Catherine Pargeter, Analytics Manager at Orchard, states that she is sticking with her tried and true process from years prior. So who, in her professional opinion, will win the Super Bowl, the Patriots or the Falcons?

She explains her logic to determine the outcome.

Loan Volume: Falcons vs. Patriots

The population of New England, at approximately 14.7 million is 1.45 times the population of Georgia, approximately 10.1 million.  New total loan volume in the New England region has been proportionally somewhat higher since 2010; In 2016 through September, New England had 1.58 times the loan volume that Georgia does.

Winner: Patriots

Falcons Patriots   Patriots to
Falcons ratio
2010 4,575,700 8,759,575 1.914
2011 8,879,475 15,481,850 1.744
2012 22,438,375 40,155,075 1.790
2013 63,378,925 99,948,775 1.577
2014 114,642,800 176,845,375 1.543
2015 217,481,100 330,735,750 1.521
2016 167,909,625 265,113,575 1.579

Borrower Characteristics

Parteger says that during 2016 borrowers from New England had higher incomes and FICO scores, with lower debt-to-income ratios. Borrowers in Georgia had one percent lower revolving credit utilization.

A larger percentage of borrowers in New England rent their home, a lower percentage have mortgages.

Winner: Patriots

Falcons Patriots
Annual Income $78,691.44 $82,371.85
Average FICO Score 694.50 696.44
Debt-to-Income Ratio 20.22% 18.06%
Revolving Credit Utilization 50.78% 51.63%
Home Ownership Status
Mortgage 57.9% 48.3%
Ownership 13.2% 11.7%
Rent 28.9% 39.9%

Loan Characteristics

During 2016, both regions experienced similar sized loans. Interest rates were slightly higher in Georgia. Loans in New England were graded slightly higher but loans in Georgia had lower risk grades.

Winner: Tie

Falcons Patriots
Average Amount Borrowed $15,198.19 $15,132.05
Average Borrower Rate 12.98% 12.59%
Loan Term
36 month 72.62% 73.20%
60 month 27.38% 26.80%
Loan Type
Whole 78.44% 79.11%
Fractional 21.56% 20.89%
Loan Purpose
Debt Consolidation 57.54% 57.64%
Credit Card 19.35% 22.64%
Home Improvement 8.67% 6.99%
Other 6.04% 6.10%
Major Purchase 2.83% 2.12%

 

Falcons Patriots
A 17.56% 19.25%
B 29.51% 31.60%
C 29.72% 28.44%
D 13.44% 12.13%
E 6.56% 5.66%
F 2.59% 2.32%
G 0.62% 0.59%

 

Loan Performance

Using 2014 vintage loans, Pargeter says the Georgia has a slightly higher charge-off rate and a big higher average interest rate so overall returns are a bit better in Georgia.  Falcons get the edge on this one.

Winner: Falcons

Weighted Average Interest Rate Annualized Charge Off Rate Annualized Return
Falcons 14.13% 7.20% 8.61%
Patriots 13.61% 6.68% 8.49%

Tie-Breaker Overtime

Using 36-month term loans, Pargeter compares the two regions.

Weighted Average Interest Rate Annualized Charge Off Rate Annualized Return
Falcons 14.80% 8.35% 9.30%
Patriots 14.46% 8.70% 8.74%

Winner: Falcons!

Pargeter notes she is a Patriots fan but her track record so far has been pretty solid. So call your bookie now and bet the farm. Orchard says the Falcons will win!