Orchard Platform has once again leveraged their deep data on online lending to predict the outcome of the SuperBowl. This will be the third year Orchard shifts gears and enters the odds-making space by using their data magic to divine a sporting event outcome
Catherine Pargeter, Analytics Manager at Orchard, states that she is sticking with her tried and true process from years prior. So who, in her professional opinion, will win the Super Bowl, the Patriots or the Falcons?
She explains her logic to determine the outcome.
Loan Volume: Falcons vs. Patriots
The population of New England, at approximately 14.7 million is 1.45 times the population of Georgia, approximately 10.1 million. New total loan volume in the New England region has been proportionally somewhat higher since 2010; In 2016 through September, New England had 1.58 times the loan volume that Georgia does.
Winner: Patriots
| Falcons | Patriots | Patriots to Falcons ratio |
|
| 2010 | 4,575,700 | 8,759,575 | 1.914 |
| 2011 | 8,879,475 | 15,481,850 | 1.744 |
| 2012 | 22,438,375 | 40,155,075 | 1.790 |
| 2013 | 63,378,925 | 99,948,775 | 1.577 |
| 2014 | 114,642,800 | 176,845,375 | 1.543 |
| 2015 | 217,481,100 | 330,735,750 | 1.521 |
| 2016 | 167,909,625 | 265,113,575 | 1.579 |
Borrower Characteristics
Parteger says that during 2016 borrowers from New England had higher incomes and FICO scores, with lower debt-to-income ratios. Borrowers in Georgia had one percent lower revolving credit utilization.
A larger percentage of borrowers in New England rent their home, a lower percentage have mortgages.
Winner: Patriots
| Falcons | Patriots | |
| Annual Income | $78,691.44 | $82,371.85 |
| Average FICO Score | 694.50 | 696.44 |
| Debt-to-Income Ratio | 20.22% | 18.06% |
| Revolving Credit Utilization | 50.78% | 51.63% |
| Home Ownership Status | ||
| Mortgage | 57.9% | 48.3% |
| Ownership | 13.2% | 11.7% |
| Rent | 28.9% | 39.9% |
Loan Characteristics
During 2016, both regions experienced similar sized loans. Interest rates were slightly higher in Georgia. Loans in New England were graded slightly higher but loans in Georgia had lower risk grades.
Winner: Tie
| Falcons | Patriots | |
| Average Amount Borrowed | $15,198.19 | $15,132.05 |
| Average Borrower Rate | 12.98% | 12.59% |
| Loan Term | ||
| 36 month | 72.62% | 73.20% |
| 60 month | 27.38% | 26.80% |
| Loan Type | ||
| Whole | 78.44% | 79.11% |
| Fractional | 21.56% | 20.89% |
| Loan Purpose | ||
| Debt Consolidation | 57.54% | 57.64% |
| Credit Card | 19.35% | 22.64% |
| Home Improvement | 8.67% | 6.99% |
| Other | 6.04% | 6.10% |
| Major Purchase | 2.83% | 2.12% |
| Falcons | Patriots | |
| A | 17.56% | 19.25% |
| B | 29.51% | 31.60% |
| C | 29.72% | 28.44% |
| D | 13.44% | 12.13% |
| E | 6.56% | 5.66% |
| F | 2.59% | 2.32% |
| G | 0.62% | 0.59% |
Loan Performance
Using 2014 vintage loans, Pargeter says the Georgia has a slightly higher charge-off rate and a big higher average interest rate so overall returns are a bit better in Georgia. Falcons get the edge on this one.
Winner: Falcons
| Weighted Average Interest Rate | Annualized Charge Off Rate | Annualized Return | |
| Falcons | 14.13% | 7.20% | 8.61% |
| Patriots | 13.61% | 6.68% | 8.49% |
Tie-Breaker Overtime
Using 36-month term loans, Pargeter compares the two regions.
| Weighted Average Interest Rate | Annualized Charge Off Rate | Annualized Return | |
| Falcons | 14.80% | 8.35% | 9.30% |
| Patriots | 14.46% | 8.70% | 8.74% |
Winner: Falcons!
Pargeter notes she is a Patriots fan but her track record so far has been pretty solid. So call your bookie now and bet the farm. Orchard says the Falcons will win!
