In the past six years from 2018 to 2024, the crypto market’s sentiment has been fearful for 54.7% of the time, greedy 32.0% and neutral for the remaining 13.3%, according to an extensive update from CoinGecko.
During this period, the Fear and Greed Index averaged “a score of 45, which represents the fear sentiment bordering neutral.”
CoinGecko pointed out that this suggests “that crypto’s periods of euphoric sentiment are shorter than that of panic and negativity, or that expectations of an up-only market are more short-lived compared to bearish expectations.”
It is also worth noting that “the Fear and Greed Index has tracked sentiment for more bearish years than bullish ones.”
Most recently, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index “has for the first time recorded four consecutive months without any days in the ‘fear’ sentiment, from November 2023 to February 2024. It remains to be seen if the crypto market will continue experiencing bullish sentiments leading up to the Bitcoin halving in April.”
CoinGecko also mentioned that the Fear and Greed Index previously “came close to this record exactly three years ago from November 2020 to February 2021, when Bitcoin rallied above $40,000 for the first time. At the time, the consecutive days of greed were broken by a single day of fear due to Bitcoin’s slight pullback before new highs.”
During the 2018 to 2019 crypto bear market, “the Fear and Greed Index recorded the second and third highest number of days spent in the ‘fear’ sentiment range respectively.”
In 2018, the crypto market had “experienced fear for an overwhelming 288 days out of the 334 tracked (86.2%), with an almost equal number of days in extreme fear (42.2%) and just fear (44.0%).”
This took place as the total crypto market capitalization “reached a new peak of $0.85 trillion on January 7, then crashed due to the ICO bubble popping and bled back down to $0.13 trillion by the end of the year.”
The crypto bear market continued “well into 2019, with 216 out of 365 days registering fear on the Index (59.2%).”
This was the year that “the Fear and Greed Index recorded its steepest overnight drop of 45 points, when the Index fell from a score of 61 (greed) on July 14, to 16 (extreme fear) the next day.”
Nevertheless, the crypto market sentiment “was buoyed by a slight mid-year recovery and recorded 121 days of greed (33.2%) in 2019, which marked an improvement from the previous year.”
2020 had a more balanced mix of sentiments “at 46.2% fear and 39.1% greed, which reflected a consolidating and steadily recovering market.”
In particular, the second half of the year “saw the crypto market experience extreme greed for 80 days (21.9% of the year) and 0 days of extreme fear, amid DeFi summer.”
In the 2021 bull run, the crypto market “experienced the most greed among all years tracked so far, at 199 days in greed out of 365 days (54.5%).”
The Fear and Greed Index also “recorded its highest overnight spike of 40 points, from a score of 38 (fear) on March 1, to 78 (extreme greed) the next day. During this year, total crypto market capitalization rose from $0.78 trillion to $2.31 trillion, while Bitcoin broke to new highs and peaked above $69,000.”
The crypto market was especially euphoric in “the first quarter of 2021 and experienced greed for a majority 96.7% of the time. Sentiments became more mixed in the subsequent quarters however, likely driven by pullbacks amid volatile market conditions.”
Crypto sentiments in 2022 “marked a stark contrast as the market was in fear for almost the entire year, or 343 out of 365 days (94.0%).”
Extreme fear accounted “for 207 days, outnumbering the 136 days that recorded just fear. The crypto market experienced only 3 days of greed and none for extreme greed, despite NFTs climbing to new highs in native crypto terms.”
Even in the first quarter when crypto ads “featured prominently in the US Super Bowl, the crypto market was already experiencing fear 83.3% of the time. This increased each quarter: Fear accounted for 93.4% of Q2 as Terra Luna crashed, then climbed to 98.9% in Q3 amid more contagion and worsening overall market conditions, and ultimately peaked at 100.0% in Q4 as FTX collapsed.”
Despite the continued crypto bear market in 2023, sentiments “seemed to stabilize with neutral accounting for 137 days (37.5%), greed registering on 165 days (45.2%), and significantly less fear at 63 days (17.3%). Notably, 2023 saw only 3 days of extreme fear in the first quarter and no days with extreme greed. This suggests that the consolidating crypto market resulted in milder sentiments recorded on the Fear and Greed Index.”
The percentage share of days that the crypto market “experienced fear, neutral and greed sentiments yearly from 2018 to 2024, as of March 5, 2024:”
Methodology
The study examined crypto market sentiment “over the years based on Alternative.me’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index, from February 1, 2018 to March 5, 2024.”
The ‘extreme fear’ sentiment is represented “by a score between 0 to 25, ‘fear’ is 26 to 46, ‘neutral’ is 47 to 54, ‘greed’ is 55 to 75, and ‘extreme greed’ is 76 to 100.”
Bitcoin and total crypto market capitalization data was taken from CoinGecko.